The Future of Security and Stability in West Africa and the Sahel
West Africa and the Sahel are entering a period of heightened uncertainty marked by overlapping security, governance, climate, and demographic pressures. Traditional crisis response mechanisms are increasingly insufficient to manage…
Conflict, Governance, and Fragility: Emerging Risk Dynamics in West Africa and the Sahel
Weak governance, contested authority, and declining trust in institutions are central drivers of conflict and fragility across West Africa and the Sahel. This report explores how governance deficits interact with…
Climate Stress, Environmental Change, and Human Security in West Africa and the Sahel
Climate variability, land degradation, and environmental change are reshaping human security across West Africa and the Sahel. These pressures exacerbate competition over resources, undermine livelihoods, and intensify displacement and conflict…
Displacement, Demographic Pressure, and Regional Stability in West Africa and the Sahel
Rapid population growth, large youth cohorts, and rising displacement are transforming social and economic landscapes across West Africa and the Sahel. While demographic change presents opportunities, unmanaged pressures increase vulnerability…
Strategic Foresight and Early Warning for Future Crises in West Africa and the Sahel
Anticipating future crises requires moving beyond reactive approaches to risk management. This report presents strategic foresight and early warning as essential tools for identifying emerging risks and supporting preventive action.…
Strengthening Early Warning Systems to Prevent Crisis Escalation
Early warning systems across West Africa and the Sahel often identify risks but fail to translate warnings into action. This brief examines institutional, technical, and political barriers that prevent early…
From Warning to Action: Closing the Early Response Gap
Despite improved risk monitoring, many crises escalate due to delayed or fragmented responses. This brief highlights governance and coordination failures that undermine early action and proposes institutional reforms to ensure…
Governance Reform as a Tool for Conflict Prevention
Weak governance and political exclusion are central drivers of conflict. This brief explores how inclusive governance reforms, accountability mechanisms, and trust-building measures can reduce conflict risk and support long-term stability.…
Rebuilding Trust in Institutions to Strengthen Stability
Declining trust in public institutions undermines crisis prevention and response. This brief examines the link between trust, legitimacy, and stability, and proposes actions to strengthen transparency, community engagement, and service…
Climate Stress as a Risk Multiplier: Implications for Preparedness
Climate variability intensifies competition over resources, livelihoods, and services. This brief highlights climate stress as a risk multiplier and argues for integrating climate data into early warning and preparedness planning…